Latest poll puts Labour on 42% of the vote

The most recent YouGov/Times poll gives Jeremy Corbyn’s party a two-point lead over Theresa May's.

The new poll, conducted between the 4th and 5th October from the end of the Tory party conference, shows that Labour is continuing to lead in the polls, as has been the case in most surveys since the election.

In the poll, 42% of respondents said they would back Labour and 40% said they would vote for the Conservatives.

This represents a slight narrowing in the gap between Britain’s two main parties, with Labour down from 43% and the Tories up from 39% in the previous poll (conducted 22nd – 24th September).

The poll also found Liberal Democrat support to be on 7%, unchanged from the previous survey.

As for who respondents thought would make the best prime minister, Theresa May continues to lead, with 36% picking her ahead of the 33% saying Jeremy Corbyn. Almost a third (32%) said they were not sure, something that suggests dissatisfaction towards the two main party leaders.

The poll also asked respondents for their views on Theresa May’s future at the helm of her party, although it is worth noting that the poll was conducted before former Tory party chairman Grant Shapps told the BBC that a significant minority of Tory representatives backed an internal leadership election.

Of those polled, 39% said May should remain Conservative leader while 38% said she should step aside, suggesting the country is split on her future. Of Conservative voters, 21% said she should step aside, as did 55% of Labour supporters and 45% of Liberal Democrat backers.

Poll respondents were also asked to give their opinions on the prime minister’s leadership:

  • 42% said she was competent, one point ahead of the 41% who said she was incompetent.
  • A striking 54% said she was indecisive, well ahead of the 30% in disagreement.
  • A further 52% called her weak, stunningly ahead of the 28% who said she was a strong leader.

She may be the preferred PM to Corbyn, but the poll suggests that the public have little respect for her leadership qualities.

The full results of the YouGov survey can be accessed here.

Could Labour win a majority?

The more fluid nature of Britain’s party politics, as well as the country’s voting system, makes seat results difficult to predict, however, the Electoral Calculus site’s predictor gives it a go.

If such a result were to be repeated at a new general election, Labour would fall 28 short of a majority with 298 seats. The Tories would be on 285 and the Liberal Democrats on 14.

Such an outcome could lead to a progressive alliance between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the SNP.