Labour ahead of the Tories by four points in latest Ipsos MORI poll

Jeremy Corbyn, Leader of the Official Opposition, responded on behalf of the Opposition

The newest poll from Ipsos MORI is good news for Labour and Jeremy Corbyn.

The poll, conducted between 15th and 18th September and released on the 21st, puts Labour on 44%, four points ahead of the Conservatives who were found to be on 40% of the vote.

The poll also puts the Liberal Democrats on 9%, UKIP on 2% and the Greens on 1%.

In a further boost to Jeremy Corbyn, his net approval rating was found to be just -3%, fourteen percentage points ahead of the -17% for Theresa May. Out of the three main party leaders, Vince Cable was found to have the highest net approval rating (-1%), however, it is worth noting that 39% of respondents said they did not know or were not sure, suggesting that Cable has yet to make a serious impact with the voting public.

In another blow to the Conservatives, the poll found that 60% of poll respondents were dissatisfied with the government. Just 30% said they were satisfied, giving the government an embarrassing net approval rating of -30%.

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However, the poll did find that 70% of Tory supporters are satisfied with May’s performance as prime minister. Before May called the election, her ratings in this regard were sky-high but dipped after the election. That said it appears they are making a slow recovery.

As for Corbyn, his net satisfaction rating with Labour members has improved over time, currently standing at +54%.

Analysis:

Overall, this poll continues to reaffirm that two-party politics has returned to Britain. If the headline voting figures from this poll were repeated at the ballot box, Labour and the Conservatives would end up dominating the House of Commons.

Although it is difficult to predict how voting intentions can translate as seats due to the country’s FPTP voting system, and predictors’ usage of uniform swing, plugging the poll’s numbers into the Electoral Calculus calculator would give Labour 314 seats, putting the party just short of a majority. The Conservatives would be on 272 seats, the Liberal Democrats on 17 seats and the Greens on one. The most likely option would therefore be a Labour government with support from the Liberal Democrats, the SNP or both.

Another interesting thing to note, is that while May’s ratings are poor, the fact they are significantly better than the government’s plays in her favour. She may be unpopular, but the team of people around her are perceived to be even more so. A new leader would likely come from the group around her, and the fact that they are even more unpopular than her protects her place at the government’s head. For now.

The full results of the Ipsos MORI poll can be accessed here.