Conservatives and Labour on 42% each in new ICM poll

Theresa May

A new ICM poll for the Guardian puts Corbyn’s Labour and May’s Conservatives on 42% of the vote each.

The new Guardian/ICM poll, conducted between the 8th and 10th September, is the first to be conducted since parliament returned last week.

It puts the two main parties on 42% each, miles ahead of the 7% of poll respondents who opted for Vince Cable’s Liberal Democrats. It also found that 3% would vote for the SNP, 3% for the Greens and 4% for UKIP.

The poll suggests that very has little has changed since June’s snap election when the Conservatives won with 42% of the vote and Labour came second with 40%.

Brexit was also a hot topic in the poll. 42% of respondents said they thought Brexit would have a negative impact on the British economy while 32% said they thought it would have a positive impact. A further 14% said it would make no difference.

Brexit

In terms of respondents' own personal finances, 41% said they thought Brexit would make no difference. A further 30% said it would have a negative impact while just 13% thought it would have a positive impact.

The poll was released after the House of Commons voted in favour of the EU repeal bill’s second reading 326 to 290, as reported by the BBC.

Analysis:

The new ICM poll suggests that June’s snap election has solidified public opinion on the different parties over the summer. However, new developments in the coming months, such as government defeats, party U-turns and maybe even cabinet reshuffles could shift the numbers one way or another.

On Brexit, clearly respondents are less concerned about the impact on their own finances than on the UK economy as a whole. Excluding ‘don’t knows’, most poll respondents said that Brexit will have either no effect or a positive effect on the British economy, suggesting that most people are not concerned by the economic impact of the UK’s decision to leave the EU contrary to the first glance of the figures.

The full results of the new poll can be viewed here.