One in two Welsh voters back Labour in new Barometer poll

Jeremy Corbyn in Parliament

The new YouGov poll, conducted for Cardiff University and ITV, gives Labour a strong lead in Wales for Westminster voting intentions.

The poll, conducted between the 4th and 7th September, found that 50% of Welsh voters would back Labour in a general election, according to Cardiff University. It also put the Conservatives on 32%, Plaid Cymru on 8%, the Liberal Democrats on 4% and UKIP on 3%.

The poll shows minimal change from June’s election, but the 50% figure for Labour shows just how striking the party’s resurgence has been under Jeremy Corbyn.

In June, Labour won 48.9% of the Welsh vote – up 12.1% from the 2015 election. The Conservatives won 33.6% of the vote, and Plaid Cymru won 10.4%.

According to Cardiff’s Roger Scully:

“Labour would capture Aberconwy from the Conservatives, and Arfon from Plaid Cymru. Plaid would also lose Ceredigion to the Liberal Democrats. All of these seats were ultra-marginal in June and so are projected to change hands even with the small changes in voting patterns since the election suggested by our new poll.”

YouGov also asked Welsh respondents to say how they would vote in a new assembly election. While Labour’s position is weaker than for the general election voting intention – perhaps due to disillusion with eighteen years of Labour-led governments – the party’s position in Cardiff is strong.

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The poll suggests that 43% of Welsh voters would back Labour in their constituency, and 42% would support the party on the regional list.

According to Professor Roger Scully, if the poll results were repeated in a fresh assembly election, Labour would gain two seats, giving them a slim overall majority, the Conservatives would be on 16, Plaid on 11, and the Liberal Democrats and UKIP on one each.

Analysis:

Any sign that Labour is at risk of losing Wales has been vanquished by the party’s resurgence in recent months. The party’s June performance and this new poll suggest that Labour is going to be dominating Wales for some time to come. As for Plaid Cymru, their chances of replicating the successes of their nationalist counterparts in Scotland have been even further diminished. For now at least, under Corbyn, Wales looks set to stay Labour territory.