Current polling suggests that the incumbent US president is having a hard time, but what do the markets say?
Donald Trump’s future is far from certain. In a usual election cycle, the president would be guaranteed to become their party’s nominee for the next presidential election, but this time speculation is mounting over whether Trump will run in 2020. A recent CNN report listed five Republicans who could challenge Trump in the 2020 primaries, including Ted Cruz and Ben Sasse, while Politico has reported that a shadow campaign could be emerging in the Republican movement in case Trump does not run at the next election.
Numerous scenarios could take place for Trump not to be on the Republican ticket; an impeachment – or impending impeachment – could see him leave before the end of his term; a fellow Republican could challenge him in the 2020 primaries, booting him of the 2020 ticket; or he could even step aside for the good of the party, allowing Mike Pence or a unity-figure to take the top spot on the ticket.
The favourite to win the 2020 election
According to Oddschecker, Donald Trump is the current favourite to win the next election. This is probably down to the fact that historically-speaking, incumbents tend to go on to serve a second term, and that the Democrats have yet to pick a candidate, meaning that all their possible candidates have longer odds. The current Vice President is the second favourite, followed by Democratic senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders.
When will Trump leave?
According to Ladbrokes, Donald Trump's most likely departure date from the Oval Office is 2021. The next US election is due to be held in 2020, but the winner gets inaugurated in the January of the following year. The favourite outcome exit date is therefore after one full term.
The second favourite year of departure is 2018 (3/1), followed by 2017 (5/1), then 2019 (6/1), and 2020 (20/1). Odds are offered at 10/1 for a departure date of 2025 – with such an outcome meaning two completed terms.
How will his presidency end?
Ladbrokes offer odds of 2/7 for Trump not to be re-elected president in 2020, suggesting that the bookies think his odds of re-election are unlikely. The company also offers odds of 4/5 for Trump to serve one full term, and evens for the president to depart before the end of his first term either via impeachment or resignation.
All odds are accurate as of 5th September.