Tory members say May should quit as PM by 2022 in new survey

Theresa May PM statement on Westminster attack

A new poll of Tory members, conducted by Conservative Home, suggests that most members want May gone by the next election.

In a move that rocked the political scene last week, Theresa May told the BBC that she intended on leading the Conservatives into the next election, even though her recent snap election backfired spectacularly, causing her party to lose its majority.

The Standard has since reported that a number of senior Conservatives, including Nicky Morgan, Lord Heseltine, Grant Shapps and two 1922 Committee executive members, have suggested that May will do no such thing.

And if a new poll from Conservative Home is accurate, it looks as if most Tory members also disagree with the prime minsiter.

When asked about a May resignation, 52% of members that responded to the survey said she should go before the next election in 2022. A further 9% said she should go immediately and 36% said she should not quit. Just under 3% said they did not know.

As Paul Goodman points out, the poll shows very little change from when the same question was asked to members one month ago, suggesting that members are currently set in their ways.

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Should Theresa May resign?

May plans to stay – or at the very least she says she plans to stay – but members have other ideas. At least for her, members do not want her to resign immediately so that gives her time to rebuild her image is she plans to “go on and on”.

If leadership challenge rumours persist, May could call a “put up or shut up” election like Major did in 1955, a move that secured his position until the 1997. However, that could be a risky move for May.

If she believes what she has said, it is likely that the prime minister will stick around until it becomes clear that her position is no longer viable.

The question then is: who could replace her? Will a cabinet giant like Boris Johnson or David Davis be the party's next leader? Or will an outsider take her place?

The full results of the survey can be accessed here. The survey was released by Conservative Home on 4th September.