Labour and Tories tied ahead of parliament’s return, says ICM poll

Jeremy Corbyn campaign in West Kirby

The latest ICM poll for the Guardian puts Britain’s two main parties on 42% each.

The poll, conducted by ICM Research for the Guardian between the 25th and 28th August, puts the Conservatives and Labour on 42% each.

In June’s general election, the Tories won 42% of the vote while Labour won 40%. The poll suggests that after a post-election poll bounce for Labour, things have settled down and the two parties are neck and neck ahead of the end of the parliamentary recess.

The new poll comes shortly after a YouGov/Times poll, which put Labour on 42% and the Tories on 41%.

Vince Cable Speech

The new ICM poll also puts the Lib Dems on 7%, in line with what they received at the general election. This is the first ICM poll conducted since Sir Vince Cable became leader of the Liberal Democrats, suggesting that his initial impact has not led to any sort of poll bounce. That could change once parliament gets underway and his performance cuts through.

The poll also puts the Greens and UKIP on 3% each, showing just how low UKIP have sunk since the Brexit vote last year.

It also puts the SNP on 2%.

Analysis:

The poll suggests that it’s all to play for once parliament returns on Tuesday 5th September. It also reaffirms the return to the two-party system that characterised June’s election, with the two main parties on 84% of the total vote.

The question for Labour now is: can Corbyn improve on his party’s vote share? And how much of that vote can come from Conservative voters?

The full results of the poll can be accessed here. ICM interviewed 1,972 adults between the 25th and 28th August.