What do the bookies say about the German election – can Merkel win?

Germany goes to the polls in less than a month. What will be the result?

Germany’s mixed member proportional representation electoral system makes the contest a fascinating one. This time, it is expected that all six main parties will end up in the Bundestag up from the four that were elected in 2013.

The country is currently run by a coalition of Merkel’s conservative CDU/CSU and the left-of-centre SPD. The latter’s chancellor-candidate Martin Schulz hopes to topple Merkel come September. The two parties will likely be joined by the liberal FDP, the Greens, the leftist Linke, and the far-right Alternative for Germany.

The resultant coalition

Due to Germany’s PR voting system, a coalition is the most likely option by far, but colours will it be?

  • The odds-on favourite outcome, according to Ladbrokes, is a CDU/CSU – FDP government. The betting firm offers short odds of 4/5.
  • The second favourite outcome is a CDU/CSU-FDP-Green government, an arrangement which has been dubbed a Jamaica coalition, due to the colours of the three parties (black, yellow, green). Ladbrokes offers odds of 4/1 for this outcome.
  • A rerun of the grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD comes in with odds of 6/1, followed by a CDU/CSU-Green alliance with odds of 8/1.
  • A leftist coalition of the SPD, Linke and the Greens gets odds of 10/1, which is followed by the very unlikely possibility of a CDU/CSU majority government with odds of 16/1.
  • A government made up of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP is given odds of 50/1, as is a government made up of just the SPD and the Greens.
  • Finally, a right-wing CDU/CSU-AfD alliance is given odds of 100/1.

Largest party

It would take a miracle for Merkel’s CDU/CSU not to become the largest party after the election – that’s if the polls and the betting markets are to be believed.

The CDU/CSU are given incredibly short odds of 1/16 to win the largest number of seats in the Bundestag whereas Schulz’s SPD are given odds of just 10/1.

The Chancellor

According to Ladbrokes, it looks unlikely that Merkel will be replaced as German chancellor in 2017. The firm offers odds of 6/1 for that to happen, and offers short odds of 1/12 for her to stay in her job.

What do the polls say?

Pollytix’s seat calculator indicates that recent polling suggests that a CDU/CSU-FDP coalition is unlikely to get an overall majority, and that the two parties – in alliance with the Greens – are likely to surpass the magic number.

A left-of-centre coalition looks unlikely to succeed in getting a majority.

Campaigns can of course change everything, but Angela Merkel looks set to win an historic fourth term as chancellor.

All Ladbrokes odds can be found here and are accurate as of 24th August.