US election 2020: what do the betting markets say on Trump’s chances?

Donald Trump

There are still more than three years to go until voters cast their ballots in the next presidential election, but what can the betting markets tell us?

With most betting companies, Donald Trump is favourite, partly because the Democrats are years away from choosing their nominee making it difficult to judge who could be set to replace him.

As of 9th August, PaddyPower gives the Donald odds of 5/2 for becoming president after the next election. He is followed by his Vice President Mike Pence with odds of 15/2. With Trump’s struggling presidency, it’s certainly possible to imagine Trump being kicked off the ticket – or booted out before then – and be replaced by his VP.

Also on 15/2 is Elizabeth Warren, a committed Democratic progressive who could well be America’s first female president. Could she unite Democrats who fought a bitter campaign between Clinton and Sanders?

Paddy Power also gives odds of 14/1 for Michelle Obama, 40/1 for Jeb Bush and 80/1 for Ivanka Trump.

Donald Trump & Ivanka Trump

William Hill’s odds differ, but contain the same key players. Trump is the current odds-on favourite with odds of 2/1, with Pence on 8/1 and Warren on 10/1. They also offer odds of 12/1 for Bernie Sanders who will be 79 by the time the next election comes along.

While it can be useful to look at betting markets – after all they can be more accurate than polls – in the betting markets for the 2016 Republican primaries, and the subsequent national election, Donald Trump was the outsider with little to no chance of winning.

Anything can happen.