Democrats beating Republicans in polls - can they take back the House?

A new YouGov poll puts the Democrats ahead of the Republicans, but can they take the House back?

The latest YouGov/Economist poll puts the Democrats on 39% - ahead of the Republicans on 34%. 4% said the other. The poll was conducted between the 6th and 8th August.

In November 2016, the Republicans won the House of Representatives, the Senate and the White House, but could the House – or even the Senate – fall back into the hands of the Democrats in November 2018?

If the polls are anything to go by, FiveThirtyEight’s data of polling this year indicates that the Democrats are ahead of the Republicans, suggesting they could be on course to take control of the House.

Much will depend on the popularity of Donald Trump, which is seriously low right now, and how the Democrats portray themselves against him. If Trump’s popularity continues to sink then Democrats wish a message of acting as a check on the president could do well come the 2018 mid-terms.

That said, another factor at play will be the popularity of local Republican candidates, but will that be enough to swing moderate voters in key districts?

One other point worth noting is that in 2016, the Republicans won a majority of seats and votes in the House of Representatives election, but in 2012 House of Representatives election, the Democrats won the most seats, but were beaten by the Republicans in terms of the distribution of seats.

In American politics, winning the most votes does not always mean winning the election. The Democrats should consider that as a possibility next time around.

The full results of the poll can be found here.