US congress: Democrats ahead of Republicans in latest YouGov poll

The latest YouGov poll (23rd - 25th July) conducted for the Economist puts the Democrats significantly ahead of their Republican rivals.

Respondents to the poll were asked:

"If an election for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the district where you live?"

A total of 40% said they would support the Democrats ahead of the 34% saying the Republicans. Additionally, 3% said other, 17% said not sure and 6% said they would not vote.

FiveThirtyEight, the highly-trustworthy political statistics site, grades polls based on their previous prediction abilities as well as their methodologies. The YouGov poll is given a B, but it is worth noting that other recent congressional polls give the Democrats the edge. The A+ rated ABC News/Washington Post poll puts the Democrats on 52% compared the Republicans’ score of 38%.

The Republicans currently control the House of Representatives, but the whole House is up for re-election in November 2018, which could allow for the Democrats to take it back.

As for the Senate, one third of that is up for election. The Republicans have a slim majority.

Could the Democrats take back congress? It’s certainly possible, especially when Donald Trump’s awful approval ratings are considered. Then again, Trump and the Republicans confounded many expectations back in November by scoring a political hattrick.

The Republicans should not be discounted just yet.

 The full results of the YouGov/Economist poll can be accessed here. 1,500 US adults were surveyed.