Theresa May “celebrates” her one-year anniversary at Downing Street today, but who will replace her when the time comes for her to move on?
One year ago, Theresa May met with the Queen to form a government, but although her position as leader looks more secure than it did one month ago, her future as leader is far from certain.
If she steps down – or is pushed – who are her most likely successors?
Current job: Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union
Position on leadership: According to the Guardian, Davis has said getting rid of the PM could lead to catastrophe, but he has ran for the position on two previous occasions, the last time against David Cameron, indicating he certainly has ambitions for Britain’s top-job.
Potential obstacles: One big obstacle in Davis’ way is that he might feel that as Brexit secretary he should continue with that role alongside a new prime minister in order to avoid any further disruptions to exiting the union.
Ladbrokes’ odds (of becoming next Conservative leader): 7/2
Current job: Chancellor of the Exchequer
Position on leadership: After the election, and in response to Andrew Marr asking “how long has Theresa May got?”, the Independent reported that, “Theresa is leading the government, and I think that the government needs to get on with its job,” suggesting that – for now – Hammond is content with May leading the party.
Potential obstacles: One potential obstacle in Hammond’s way is that he is too close to May, having served as her chancellor. Such an association would likely not help his chances if there is demand for a break from May’s time in power.
Ladbrokes’ odds: 5/1
Current job: Foreign Secretary
Potential obstacles: One key obstacle in his way is that, despite the change in parliamentary arithmetic, he might lack the support to get on the final ballot. He is also seen as a "buffoon", which will likely not help him with MPs and members looking for a strong leader in times of change. According to Business Insider UK, Nick Clegg has called the foreign secretary a “buffoon” in relation to his time on the world stage.
Ladbrokes’ odds: 8/1
Current job: Home Secretary
Position on leadership: It is unclear whether she has ambitions to lead the party, but the Telegraph commented that during the TV debate where she stepped in for May, Rudd could be seen as a potential future leader.
Potential obstacles: Like Hammond, Rudd is possibly too close to May, having even stood in for her for the television debate, something that would not play well in her favour if Conservatives wished to see a break from May’s premiership. She also backed the remain campaign in the referendum, which would hinder her chances if Conservatives wanted a true Brexiteer.
Ladbrokes’ odds: 10/1
Current job: Back-bench MP
Position on leadership: City A.M. recently reported that Rees-Mogg’s odds of becoming Conservative leader have been cut considerably, as can be seen below.
Potential obstacles: One main obstacle in his way is that many Conservative MPs in the moderate wing of the party might be unlikely to see how Rees-Mogg could appeal to soft Conservative voters. He has also had no ministerial experience, which would hinder his chances of taking the top role.
Ladbrokes’ odds: 12/1
Current job: Environment Secretary
Position on the leadership: He ran before in 2016, suggesting he has the ambitions for the job and could run again.
Potential obstacles: The main obstacle in Gove’s way is that one year ago he received only limited support when he went for the position, failing to make it on to the final ballot. He would need to get support from many of the MPs who backed Theresa May in the last contest in order to improve his chances.
Ladbrokes’ odds: 16/1
Current job: Scottish Conservative and Unionist leader and Leader of the Opposition at Holyrood
Position on leadership: According to the Herald, Davidson is putting her effort into forming and leading the next Scottish government after the next Scottish election. Nonetheless, in an interview with the Daily Mail, Scotland’s Tory leader has not ruled out the possibility of it being a goal one day.
Potential obstacles: Despite being a likely future Conservative leader, she is currently not even a member of the House of Commons.
Ladbrokes’ odds: 16/1
SEE ALSO: Ruth Davidson: on the road to Number 10?
The full list of Ladbrokes' odds for the next Conservative leader can be found here. All odds are accurate as of 12th July 2017.