Poll: 57% disagree with Tory-DUP deal

Arlene Foster

The Survation poll found significant disagreement with the country’s new government arrangement.

The poll, conducted by Survation for the Daily Record, suggests strong opposition to the Conservative-DUP confidence and supply deal.

Respondents were asked:

"Do you agree or disagree with the Conservative Party entering into a confidence and supply arrangement with the Democratic Unionist Party, whereby the DUP’s MPs will support the Conservative government on key votes in the House of Commons?"

A total of 57% said they disagree with the arrangement compared to 32% who said they agreed. A further 11% said they did not know.

It’s been almost a month since the election in which Theresa May’s Conservatives lost their majority and had to deal with the DUP to stay in power.

When results are broken down into different types of respondent categories, some interesting patterns emerge.

Of the female respondents, 61% said they disagreed with the deal compared to 24% in favour of the deal. For male respondents, the figures were 52% disagree and 41% agree, suggesting an apparent gender divide.

When results are broken down by who survey respondents voted for in last month’s election, 63% of those who cast their ballot for the Conservatives support the deal (with 29% against it). For Labour voters, 83% said they disagree with the deal compared to the 9% who said they agree; for Liberal Democrats, 81% disagreed and 16% agreed.

When answers are split by age-groups, there is a trend suggesting that younger people are less likely to agree with the deal than their older counterparts, perhaps unsurprisingly.

  • 18-34: 25% agree, 62% disagree
  • 35-54: 28% agree, 59% disagree
  • 55+: 42% agree, 50% disagree

The breakdown tells an interesting story, although it is worth noting that the margin of error is higher here than for the overall sample due to sub-samples being used. This means that figures are less likely to be statistically significant.

Analysis: what does the poll mean?

The poll implies that most voters disagree with the deal struck between the Conservatives and the DUP, suggesting unease with the UK’s new administration. However, the Conservatives will be relieved to know that at least the poll suggests that most of their own voters support the government’s decision.

Nonetheless, they should be worried that almost a third of their voters disagree with the deal.

The poll also indicated that on who would make the best prime minister, the majority of respondents said Theresa May (44%), but they should note that the poll found that 38% said Jeremy Corbyn (38%), his best rating with Survation.

The full results of the Survation for the Daily Record can be found here.