The election is over, but the polling is rolling on.
The latest poll by Opinium suggests that the political winds are continuing to move in Labour’s favour. Jeremy Corbyn’s party stand on 45% of the vote whilst the Conservatives are on 39%. Lagging way behind in third place are the Liberal Democrats and UKIP both on just 5%, followed by the Greens on 2%.
Opinium/Observer: The #labour surge continues:— Opinium Research (@OpiniumResearch) July 1, 2017
(27 - 29 Jun)
The poll, released on Saturday, could be indicating that things are moving further in Jeremy Corbyn’s favour, however, the latest poll from Survation gives a result much closer to that of the recent election, perhaps suggesting that very little has changed.
The Survation poll, also released on Saturday, puts the Conservatives on 41%, Labour on 40%, the Lib Dems on 7%, UKIP on 2% and the Greens on 1%.
Analysis: what does it all mean?
Firstly, it’s worth noting that Survation was pretty accurate before the election when it came to the actual results, according to the Mirror.
Other than that and the fact that it appears Labour’s is maintaining its place in the polls or even strengthening it, the surveys indicate that two-party politics, which due to the collapse of UKIP and the mediocre performance of the Liberal Democrats, is here to stay.
For years the political system had been fragmenting, but across the country the Conservative and Labour vote-shares increased.
With an election five years away – or perhaps around the corner – last month’s election tells us that anything can happen. However, for now it seems that two-party politics is here to stay.
Finally, there is a glimmer of hope for Theresa May. The Survation poll found that 51% of respondents said they trust Theresa May to deliver the best Brexit deal for the UK whereas just 35% said the same about Jeremy Corbyn.
The full results of the Survation poll (taken between 28th and 30th June) can be found here.