The Southampton boss has been linked with the vacant Everton job.
Everton are currently looking for their next manager having sacked Roberto Martinez last week.
A number of names have already been linked with the job, varying from Frank de Boer to former boss David Moyes.
Southampton manager Koeman is thought to be among those being targeted, with rumours suggesting he will be offered a huge transfer budget to lure him to Goodison Park.
However Murphy cannot see that happening, as he believes the Dutchman will be targeting a Champions League club for his next move.
“Koeman would be a surprise to me,” he told Match of the Day.
“Will he be looking for bigger and better things than Everton? I’m not being disrespectful but Koeman is a really good manager who might be looking at a Champions League club.”
Koeman certainly is very highly rated in the game at present as a result of the work he has undertaken in his first two years at Southampton.
The most likely big club he would end up at is Barcelona, where he played during his playing career, but they are not going to part with Luis Enrique any time soon.
That could change next year though, and perhaps Koeman is thinking of finishing his contract at St Mary’s before eyeing the job at the Nou Camp next summer