SNP set to increase their Holyrood majority

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon

A Survation poll for the Daily Mail suggests that the SNP are set to increase their majority in the 2016 Scottish elections. Will their bubble ever burst?

For Scottish parliamentary elections Scots get two votes: one for their constituency and a regional list vote. Respondents were asked about both votes.

For the constituency votes, respondents gave the following results:

This would likely result in the SNP taking all or almost all of the constituencies in the country, mirroring their success in this May’s elections.

As for the regional vote, which adds a proportional element to the parliament the SNP did slightly worse but still came out as the top party.

  • SNP 45%
  • Labour 19%
  • Conservatives 12%
  • Green 11%
  • Liberal Democrats 8%
  • UKIP 5%

The Daily Record, reporting on the Survation/Mail poll suggested that: “If the poll results became reality next year Miss Sturgeon would increase the SNP’s majority from 69 to 71.”

Overall, this poll is great news for the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon who is still riding on the success of this year’s general election. However, one of the striking thing’s about this poll is the Greens’ 11%. The Scottish Greens have just 2 MSPs, but if they got 11% that figure would likely rise. Furthermore, UKIP’s 5% could see the party enter the Scottish parliament for the first time.

If this poll is repeated next May in the actual election the SNP will dominate but there will be a huge variety of opposition forces at every turn.

The poll also asked respondents in Scotland on the EU, with 67% saying yes to staying in and 34% saying they would like to leave. Furthermore, on the issue of Scottish independence, despite the SNP’s dominance, 52% want Scotland to remain in the UK, whereas 48% wish to leave. These latter questions show that Scotland still wishes to remain in the UK and that Scotland is marginally more pro-EU than the rest of the UK.

Overall, the poll is a fascinating insight into the Scottish politics currently at play.

The Survation/Daily Mail poll was conducted between the 3rd and 7th June. The full results can be found here and here.

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