Of all respondents to the YouGov survey, 42% said they would want to stay in the EU in the event of a referendum, whereas 35% said they would vote to leave.
Voters were asked:
“If there was a referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union and this was the question, how would you vote: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?”
When don’t knows were excluded the results became 55% yes to 45% no - a result exactly the opposite of the Scottish referendum last year.
Of all political groups of voters, UKIP ones were most likely to say they would vote to leave (83%). Conservative voters were split with 42% saying they would vote no compared to the 37% who would vote yes. As for Labour voters 58% said they would vote to stay in compared to the 20% who would vote to leave.
And lastly, for the Liberal Democrats, 64% would vote yes, whereas 20% would vote no.
Polls on EU membership have been conducted often in the past but with a referendum more or less set in stone be prepared for many more to come.
Scotland is an important lesson. The figures give the yes camp a strong showing but things can change as seen in Scotland's independence referendum. There is a lot to play for.
Three factors will have a major impact: the success of David Cameron’s renegotiations, the voters who have yet to make up their minds, and changing public opinion. With regards to the last one, as the campaigns kick off more literature will be published by each side and people will be swayed this way and that.
As said already: both sides have a lot to play for.
- The poll also suggests that younger voters are more pro-EU and older ones are more likely to vote to leave.
- The poll also suggests that voters in Scotland are more pro-EU than in the rest of the UK (60% yes, 24% no).
The full results of the poll can be accessed here.