Leadership contests: predictions

Houses of Parliament

Predictions on who will win the upcoming leadership contests.

Liberal Democrats

The Liberal Democrat leadership election is between two MPs, former party President Tim Farron and former Health Minster Norman Lamb. It is arguably a battle between a coalition MP and one who stood outside of the coalition. The contest could be decisive for the future direction of the Liberal Democrats.

Tim Farron is perceived as the front-runner, and the betting markets put him ahead. Norman Lamb is an experienced minister, but I reckon that Tim Farron will pull ahead.


As for the Labour party, there are four candidates in the running. Andy Burnham, Liz Kendall, Yvette Cooper and Mary Creagh. William Hill puts them in that order, with Burnham as the narrow favourite.

But despite Burnham being in the lead I reckon Kendall will pull through and win the Labour leadership. She has the backing of Chuka Umunna’s team, according to the New Statesman.

Of course if Dan Jarvis had stood I think he could have done very well, but without Jarvis in the race I think Kendall has the slight edge. And due to the fact that the leader will be elected on a one member one vote system, rather than the old system which gave Unions an advantage, Andy Burnham’s support from Union members will be diluted somewhat.


The next Conservative leadership race is a while away, but if David Cameron steps down as planned for the next election then there will be one within the next five years. Boris Johnson, George Osbourne, Theresa May are likely contenders, as is Sajid Javid.

It’s so long away so incredibly hard to make a prediction. Furthermore, the fact the race will be in five years means that many of the 2015 intake will have time to grow and potentially throw their hats into the ring. But looking at current polling for the most preferred next leader, as well as my gut, I have to say I reckon Boris Johnson will lead the Conservatives into the 2020 election.


Of course predictions can go remarkably wrong. Even polls can get it wrong as we have seen in the most recent election. But if my guesses are right then 2020 will be a battle between Liz Kendall, Boris Johnson and Tim Farron. Nicola Sturgeon will likely still be around, and as for Nigel Farage who knows how long he will remain in UKIP’s prime position.


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