General election: three constituencies to watch out for on the night

Nigel Farage at CPAC

With the election just one day away here are three constituencies that could be key in determining political decisions of the future.

South Thanet

South Thanet is the seat that Nigel Farage is standing in. A win for him would be a major win for the party even if they fail to break through in other parts of the country. But if he fails to win then he has said he will stand down as leader so this seat could be key in determining the future of UKIP.

What are the odds of a Farage win?

  • UKIP 8/13
  • Conservatives 6/4
  • Labour 11/1

William Hill gives the UKIP leader the edge, just ahead of the Conservatives on 6/4. The company puts Labour on 11/1 and the rest miles behind.

East Renfrewshire

East Renfrewshire is the seat of the Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy. Recent Ashcroft polls have put him behind the SNP, but the latest saw him begin to close the gap. A win for Murphy would likely see him keep his position as Scottish Labour leader, but a loss could be damaging for him and potentially end his political career after such a humiliating defeat.

What are the odds of a Murphy win? (William Hill)

  • SNP 8/11
  • Labour 11/10
  • Conservatives 28/1
  • Lib Dems 100/1
  • UKIP 100/1

The SNP could win, but Murphy's odds are not bad.

Sheffield Hallam

This is Nick Clegg’s constituency. Labour will hope for a win here, but a new Guardian-ICM poll puts Nick Clegg ahead of the other parties when his name is mentioned. It seems that many voters in the constituency could be putting and ‘X’ next to Clegg’s name to save him - and potentially save the coalition. The poll indicates that perhaps 48% of people who would vote Tory could be preparing to back the Liberal Democrat leader.

What are his odds of survival? (William Hill)

  • Liberal Democrats 1/5
  • Labour 3/1
  • Conservatives 66/1
  • UKIP 100/1

If this is anything to go by it looks as if Nick Clegg has a fairly good chance of keeping his seat.

*All odds from 5/5/2015.

Predictions

In this unpredictable election one would be a fool to make strong predictions, but from looking at polling and the betting markets I will make three for these:

  • Nick Clegg will remain the MP for Sheffield Hallam.
  • Nigel Farage will take South Thanet, if only by a whisker.
  • And as for Murphy - it really could go either way.

Correct me in two days if I am wrong.

What do you think will happen? Will Nigel Farage get into parliament and will Nick Clegg and Jim Murphy hold their seats?

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