Two weeks to go: general election predictions

Attempting to predict the UK’s most unpredictable election in decades.

Right now the polls are remaining steady, with the Conservatives and Labour just one or two points apart. Unless something dramatic happens that looks unlikely to change in the coming weeks.

Two weeks ago I made some predictions about the election. I made seven points which I still think will happen, from there being a hung parliament, to Scotland being dominated by the SNP and to an increased vote share for UKIP but a failure to make a real breakthrough into parliament.

See the predictions here.

I also said that my gut says that the Conservatives will remain the largest party, however, with Ed Miliband doing better in approval ratings in recent weeks it would not be surprising if Labour emerged with the most seats and votes.

Take one of YouGov’s most recent polls for example. The entire sample was split in two. One half were asked which party will emerge victorious after the election. In February 42% said the Conservatives, whilst 30% said Labour. In April 37% said the Conservatives, whilst 36% said Labour, suggesting that people are starting to think that Labour being the largest party is most likely.

But more interestingly perhaps, the other half of the sample were asked who they think will emerge as Prime Minister after the election. In February 44% said Cameron, whilst 24% said Miliband. However, in April, 37% said Cameron and 34% said Miliband. This clearly suggests that people are starting to think the idea of Ed Miliband is more likely.

And importantly for him, people are starting to think that he could actually be Prime Minister.

See the full results of the YouGov poll here.

So right now it’s incredibly hard to predict who will come first in the election, but I think at this stage Labour do have an advantage (small though it may be).

Prediction of parties in order of votes:

  1. Labour/Conservatives
  2. Conservatives/Labour
  3. UKIP
  4. Lib Dems
  5. Greens

Prediction of parties in order of seats:

  1. Labour/Conservatives
  2. Conservatives/Labour
  3. SNP
  4. Lib Dems
  5. DUP
  6. UKIP

As for what sort of government will emerge: who knows?

What are your thoughts on the election? Which party do you think will emerge with the most seats in the House Of Commons?


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