“As ever, it is important to remember that these are snapshots, not predictions.”
This is an important reminder that these polls will not tell us which way a seat will definitely go, but they do give us a flavour of what is going on in specific seats.
Out of ten new constituencies polled (all of which currently held by the Conservatives) the polls suggest that if the results found by Ashcoft were repeated on May 7th Labour would gain three seats, tie with the Tories in two, whilst David Cameron’s party would retain the other five.
These are seats “further down the Conservative defence list” (as put Ashcroft), but still in the battleground for Number Ten. These are seats that Ed Miliband will need to do well in if he is to walk into Downing Street and seats that the Conservatives will need to hold onto to remain the largest party in parliament.
The three constituencies that would turn Labour red if the poll was repeated on May 7th were Crewe & Natwich, Finchley & Golders Green and Milton Keynes South.
The polling suggests that Labour is making progress. For example, the party could be on course for gaining seven points in Milton Keynes South.
However, all is not perfect for the party. Whilst Labour lead in these three seats in the polls it is only by 2-3% in each. This combined with the two ties and the five Conservative holds indicates that Labour still has a battle to fight before May 7th.
Yes, Labour are making progress, but the question is: will it be enough?
See the full results of the polls here.