SNP increase lead over Labour as poll confirms Sturgeon debate victory

Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister in Bute House

The latest YouGov poll for Scotland suggests that the SNP are making further gains at Labour’s expense.

The poll of Scottish voting intentions in Westminster, for the Times, gave the following results:

SNP 49% (+3). Lab 25% (-4). Con 18% (+2). LD 4% (+1).

The poll clearly illustrates a widening in the gap between Labour and the SNP, with the latter having almost double the vote share of the former. Such results if repeated in the general election in less than four weeks time would be a tremendous achievement for the SNP who were only until relative recently in their history a fringe party in Scotland, let alone a dominant political force. With these results the SNP would likely get almost all of Scotland's seats, taking many supposed 'safe' seats from the Labour party.

If the results were repeated on election day almost 1 in 2 Scots who turned out to vote would be voting for Nicola Sturgeon’s party.

YouGov have said that this is an all time polling high for the SNP, as well as an all time polling low for Labour, showing just how much the political landscape has changed since the referendum.

Furthermore, the poll also suggested that it was the First Minister who won the debate against other party leaders on Tuesday on STV. The poll suggested that 56% of Scottish adults who watched some the debate thought the SNP leader won, well ahead of the Scottish Conservative leader, Ruth Davidson, on 14%, the Scottish Labour leader, Jim Murphy, on 13% and the Scottish Liberal Democrats’ leader, Willie Rennie, one just 1%.

Sturgeon’s dominating 56% clearly cements her position as leader, whilst Murphy’s score - less than Davidson’s - indicates just how much the Labour party are suffering as a result of the SNP’s surge.

Unless something monumental shifts the numbers before polling day it looks as if Scotland’s political landscape in Westminster will change significantly with this election resulting in electoral dominance by the SNP. As for the whole of the United Kingdom the overall winner is far far less than certain, with YouGov’s latest poll (8th - 9th April) giving the following results:

Conservatives 35% (+1). Labour 34% (-1). UKIP 12% (-1). Lib Dems 8% (-). GRN 4% (-1).

Mr Miliband will not be too happy about this poll as it reaffirms that Labour is in the process of losing its stronghold north of the border, however, with the SNP’s Nicola Sturgeon having said her party would put Miliband into Downing Street to kick Cameron out all is not lost for Labour. The irony is that the Labour party are suffering because of the SNP and could fall short of becoming the largest party because of them, but it could be the SNP who get Miliband into Number Ten.

The full results of the poll can be found here.

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