Lloyd Blankfein didn’t change course as revenue from trading debt, commodities and currencies at Goldman Sachs fell more than 50% over the past five years. Now it’s time for that patience to start paying off.
The bank Blankfein leads may report a 7% increase in first-quarter fixed-income revenue as volatility in interest-rates and currency markets prompted more trading, according to the average of five analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Three big U.S. competitors are seen posting declines, the estimates show. That would give Goldman Sachs its largest share of fixed-income revenue in four years.
While banks including Morgan Stanley scaled back, CEO stuck with businesses such as commodities trading and maintained that fixed-income revenue will bounce back. President Gary Cohn said in May that Goldman Sachs was gaining share from other firms, even if it wasn’t showing up in revenue totals.
'This is the quarter to really test that theory out and see: Has their commitment to the business paid off ?', said Brian Kleinhanzl, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods in New York.
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