Four weeks to go: election far too close to call

The UK’s general election is now just four weeks away, but it is still unclear which of the two main parties will emerge with more votes.

This year's election is too close to call. A hung parliament is the most likely outcome, but no one is sure whether it will be the Conservatives or the Labour party who will emerge with the most seats on the day following election day.

The latest YouGov poll (conducted between the 7th and 8th of April) gives Labour a one point lead over the Conservatives:

Labour 35%. Conservatives 34%. UKIP 13%. Liberal Democrats 8%. Greens 5%.

A one point lead is within the margin or error, but with most recent polls putting either Labour one or two points ahead, or the Conservatives one or two ahead, the consistency is the closeness of the race to be the biggest party.

The latest poll also suggests that 67% of people are absolutely certain to vote. If that figure was repeated in the general election in May then turnout would be 2 points higher than 2010. Furthermore, the poll also suggests that voters in Scotland are much more likely to vote in the upcoming general election compared to voters across the rest of the country. Perhaps they are riding on the wave of political engagement that began in the referendum campaign. A total of 82% of respondents living in Scotland said they were absolutely certain to vote in the election compared to the following for the rest of the UK:

London 69%, Rest of South 66%, Midlands/Wales 64% and the North 66%.

It seems plausible to argue that turnout will likely be higher this year than in 2010 due to the rise of smaller parties and the chance of a hung parliament, potentially placing the smaller parties in a very powerful position.

Furthermore, the poll also puts David Cameron ahead of Ed Miliband when respondents were asked who would make the better Prime Minister. 40% said Cameron, whilst 24% said Miliband. However, Miliband's 24% is a three point increase on his score in the end of March. 7% also said Nick Clegg.

Looking at this poll, and countless others before it, the Conservatives and Labour might be almost equal, but when it comes to the party leaders David Cameron certainly has the advantage.

The full results of YouGov's poll, for the Sun, can be accessed here. YouGov interviewed 1,871 GB adults between the 7th and 8th of April.


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