Scotland at odds with rest of UK on Miliband's coalition rejection

Ed Miliband at the Road to Copenhagen launch

A new YouGov poll indicates that most Scots think it was wrong for Miliband to rule out a coalition deal, whilst voters in the rest of the UK disagree.

YouGov’s latest poll, for the Sunday Times, gives Labour a two point lead over the Conservatives (35% - 33%). It also puts UKIP on 14%, the Liberal Democrats on 8% and the Greens on 5%.

The poll asked votes the following question:

“This week Ed Miliband ruled out Labour forming a coalition with the SNP in the event of a hung Parliament. Do you think he is right or wrong to rule out a Labour/SNP coalition?”

The majority of voters across the UK said that the Labour leader was right to rule out a coalition. 52% said this, whilst 23% said that he made the wrong decision.

Furthermore, a plurality of Labour voters said they think their leader made the right decision (49% - 31%).

One interesting thing the poll indicates is that for the different regions of the UK, other than Scotland, those who said it was the right decision range from 51% to 55%, however, for respondents living in Scotland more said that Miliband made the wrong decision to rule out a formal coalition.

46% of Scottish respondents said this, compared to the 31% who said that the ruling out was the right one.

It’s unlikely that either the SNP of Labour would enter into a fully-fledged coalition, something confirmed by Ed Miliband's ruling out, however, a confidence and supply arrangement looks much more likely. Nonetheless, the poll suggests significant differences between Scotland and the rUK on the issue.

As for the situation which could emerge in May if the SNP hold the balance of power, the plurality of voters across the UK (and in Scotland on its own) think that Nicola Sturgeon’s party would vote to support a minority Labour administration. 34% of respondents gave this answer.

A further 11% said they think a Labour-SNP coalition would be most likely, whilst 15% said they think that the SNP would not support either of the main two parties.

A total of 4% of respondents said they think a Conservative-SNP coalition would emerge in this scenario, whilst 3% said they think the SNP would not join a coalition with Cameron’s party but instead prop up a minority administration.

The poll is interesting as it shows differences across the UK on the issue of Miliband ruling out a coalition, whilst also showing what voters think will happen.

The election is just over a month away so before long these speculations could become reality.

The full results of the poll can be found here. 1,532 GB adults were questioned between the 19th and 20th March.

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