Most voters think UKIP will get 3-5 seats, whilst UKIP voters are much more optimistic
A new poll conducted by YouGov suggests that most voters think UKIP will get just a handful of seats in May.
The polling company asked respondents the question:
“In the general election next May, how many seats, if any, do you think UKIP will win?”
For all voters, 26% thought Nigel Farage’s party would get just 3-5 seats in the election (up four points from the last time the question was asked in September). Slightly less (19%) said they thought UKIP would get 6-10 seats in May, whilst 9% thought the party would get two seats, and another 9% said they thought the party would get 10-20 seats. 8% thought the party would get more than 20 seats.
This indicates that voters think UKIP will exceed the two seats they currently hold.
On the other hand, voters intending to vote for Nigel Farage’s party are more optimistic about their party’s fortunes in the upcoming election. 51% said they thought that UKIP would get over ten seats, made up of 22% thinking that they would get 10-20 seats, and 29% thinking that the party would get over 20 seats.
Just 1% of UKIP voters thought that the party will get just two seats, whilst 27% thought UKIP will get 6-10 seats. None of the UKIP respondents thought the party would get either one or zero seats.
Of course it’s obvious that UKIP voters are more likely to think the party will do well than the general public, nonetheless, it is interesting that the group that are most optimistic are the biggest group - the 29% thinking the party will get 20+ seats. If the party get such a result then they could potentially hold some sort of balance of power. Indeed, Nigel Farage recently said the party would hopefully get more than a handful of seats in the election.
Additionally, the poll also suggested that 53% of voters thought UKIP “will eventually fade from politics, and probably will not be a force in British politics in 10 years”, the highest for any of the parties.
Overall, such polls are not that useful in seeing where support lies, however, they tell an interesting story about how voters are speculating the future. UKIP will undoubtedly do well in terms of their share of the vote in May, but despite this, with the UK’s current voting system in place the best anyone can predict how many seats they will get is, well, speculate.
The full results of the YouGov poll can be found here.