UKIP hit low in Lord Ashcroft’s poll

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Lord Ashcroft’s latest poll puts the party on just 11% - the lowest seen for some time.

The 11% figure is despite Lord Ashcroft including UKIP in the initial prompting when people are asked who they will vote for.

Analysing the poll, Lord Ashcroft said:

“the UKIP share of 11% is the lowest I have yet found in my national polling.”

Overall, the poll gives the following results:

LABOUR 36%. CONSERVATIVES 32%. UKIP 11%. GREENS 8%. LIB DEMS 7%.

This snapshot indicates that Labour are leading in the run up to the general election, and also suggests that the Greens and the Liberal Democrats could be battling for fourth place.

UKIP’s 11% could just be a blip. The previous Ashcroft poll put the party on 16% and the one before that put them on 14%. Furthermore, YouGov’s latest poll put them on 13%.

However, the polls could be suggesting that UKIP are running out of steam. With two months to go it is unlikely that the party's support will fall much further, especially now they have established such a big presence on the national political stage, but it appears unlikely that they will get a share of the vote in the high teens (if polls are to be believed). They will undoubtedly get more than 10% of the vote, which would still be a tremendous success but if they are running out of steam then it is unlikely their vote share will be higher than 15%.

What this means for seats will be hard to predict. National polls are not the best indicator for the UK's electoral system, but Lord Ashcroft's recent constituency polling suggests that UKIP are snapping a the heals of the Conservatives and are in with a chance of winning a good handful of seats. Additionally, it seems unlikely that UKIP’s Douglas Carswell will lose his seat.

This 11% could be a blip and next week the party will be up, or it could be a sign that the party has had its peak. Whatever this slump is we will not discover until the general election, when UKIP could either fail dramatically or take Westminster by storm.

The full results of the Ashcroft poll can be found here.

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