Opinium’s latest poll, which gives the Tories a two point lead, is reportedly their first lead since 2012.
The full results of the poll are as follows:
If these results were repeated in the general election, the Conservatives would see a slight fall in their share of the vote, whilst Labour would receive a big boost. Such a result would likely result in a hung parliament of some form.
There are two ways one could interpret this poll. It could be seen as a sign that the Conservatives are turning around their fortunes in the poll and are on the way towards building momentum to win the election in May. Or it could be seen as an outlier and that the longer trend should be looked at.
Either way, the election looks to be tight, with YouGov’s Sunday poll for the Sunday Times giving Labour just a one point lead. If the Conservatives do pull ahead and win the election then it will likely be by only a few points. The election is going to be a close one.
Furthermore, with the first-past-the-post system a lot will depend on who gets the key marginals and where ex-Lib Dem votes go and if UKIP voters decide to stay with their party.
The Conservatives could be pulling ahead and on their way to victory, but with a multitude of polls suggesting that the two main parties are just points apart, the only way we will know for sure is likely to be by waiting for the election results.