Greens to be Scotland’s third party in 2016?

Debating Chamber Scottish Parliament

Survation’s latest poll, for the Daily Record, suggests that the Scottish Greens are on course to doing extremely well come 2016.

The poll suggested that the SNP are still on course to do extremely well at Labour’s expense in Westminster, but for Holyrood, the party are on track to remain the largest, ahead of Labour then the Greens.

The poll suggests that these are the voting intentions for constituencies in Holyrood:

SNP 48%. LABOUR 28%. CONSERVATIVES 13%. LIB DEMS 5%. OTHERS 7%.

The poll gives these figures for the regional lists, which is where the Greens will benefit most from.

SNP 39%. LABOUR 22%. GREENS 13%. CONSERVATIVES 12%. LIB DEMS 7%. UKIP 7%.

Overall, this suggests that these will be the following seats, according to the Scotland votes website:

SNP 67 seats (-2). LABOUR 27 seats (-10). GREENS 15 seats (+13). CONSERVATIVES 14 seats (-1). LIB DEMS 6 seats (+1).

If these results are repeated in May, then the SNP will likely retain a small majority and Labour will be reduced further. The Greens would be on fifteen, which would be a tremendously good result for the party who currently have just two seats in the chamber.

However, the Scotland Votes calculator does not take account of UKIP, who until they gained their first MEP in Scotland last year were a negligible force north of the border. Including UKIP would likely see them gain some seats, partly at the Greens’ expense.

Nonetheless, it suggests that the Greens are surging in Scotland. The election is over a year away, but if the SNP lose their majority and the Greens surge then the two parties could come to some arrangement.

Overall, Scotland’s political landscape is changing. Following Blair’s landslide the Conservatives have been continually seen as toxic, and with recent polls suggesting that the SNP could over take Labour as Scotland’s largest party, the same could arguably be said for Jim Murphy’s party.

2016 is a while away, but the results of the 2015 general election - especially in Scotland - will most definitely have a massive impact in the the Holyrood elections next year.

The full results of the Survation/Daily Record poll can be accessed here.

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