ICM poll: Conservatives ahead of Labour, and UKIP behind Lib Dems

PM and Deputy PM outside Number 10

The latest ICM/Guardian poll gives the Tories a strong lead over Labour (up six points), but also puts the Liberal Democrats in third place.

The full results of the poll are as follows:

CONSERVATIVES 36%. LABOUR 32%. LIB DEMS 10%. UKIP 9%. GREENS 7%. OTHERS 7%.

The poll gives the Conservatives a similiar share of the vote they achieved in 2010, but also puts Labour on a stronger position that they were in last time. This indicates that a hung parliament is still looking rather likely.

Additionally, despite most polls of the last couple of years putting UKIP in third place, the new ICM poll puts Nigel Farage’s party behind Nick Clegg’s. Perhaps as the election is drawing nearer, people are going to go for more ‘known’ parties (an argument which would help explain the Conservative’s 36% as well).

However, this poll could be an outlier. Nonetheless, the previous ICM/Guardian poll put the Lib Dems and UKIP level pegging on 11%. These polls go against others which suggest UKIP is in the mid-teens. For example, YouGov’s latest gives UKIP 15%.

Another interesting thing about the poll is that it suggests that the Greens are losing support. From an ICM/Guardian high of 9% last time round, the new poll puts them on just 7%.

Furthermore, the poll also suggests that the top three issues that people think are the most important are the NHS (31% n/c), jobs prices and wages (17% +3%), and immigration on 15% (-4%).

Overall, the sharp rise in Conservative support could suggest that the country is heading towards another Conservative-led parliament, however, this poll could just be an outlier. As for the drop in UKIP support it could suggest that people are wanting a more ‘known’ choice, but this poll conflicts with others in which UKIP are in a clear third place.

Polls are merely snapshots, not predictions, but as the general election draws near opinions may change as people realise how important it really is.

The full results of the latest poll can be found here.

The full results for the previous can also be found here.

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