Labour's comeback? Party ahead in key marginals, suggests new poll

Ed Miliband at the Road to Copenhagen launch

A new ComRes poll, for ITV, suggests that Labour has a lead in key marginal constituencies in the election.

ComRes has polled 1,004 people from the tightest Labour/Tory marginals in Wales and England.

In these seats, Labour have a strong lead, at 40%, suggesting that they could make big gains come the general election.

Furthermore, the Conservatives are placed on 31% - a full nine points behind Ed Miliband’s Labour party.

The poll next puts UKIP on 15%, the Liberal Democrats on 8% and the Greens on 5%.

According to ITV, the ComRes previously polled these seats back in November, and since then little has changed, other than a marginal boost in Labour support and a fall in support for UKIP.

It is well known that it’s in these marginal constituencies that elections are won and lost. Whilst campaigns may appear national, most of the battle is fought in these constituencies. Interestingly, according to the BBC, just fewer than 10% of seats have changed hands in 12/17 of the elections since 1950.

For Labour to become the biggest party in parliament they will need to work hard in these constituencies. Likewise for the Tories to remain the top party in parliament they will need to do the same.

This poll is important as it suggests that Labour could be set to do well come May. However, with this being released just weeks after Lord Ashcroft’s constituency polling in Scotland where the SNP are set to make big gains from Labour, new gains in England and Wales might not be enough to off-set the loss north of the border.

The battle for Number Ten will be tough, but the party can take comfort in the fact that in these constituencies - according to the poll - they are set to do well.


Prime Minister Miliband? Labour on three point lead

Labour voters split over deal with SNP

Ashcroft suggests SNP rise 'is real'