99 days to go: are the Conservatives pulling ahead?

David Cameron Looks Upwards

YouGov’s latest polls for the Sun have put the Conservatives ahead, following a string of marginal Labour leads.

The latest poll from the company puts the party on 34%, one point ahead of Labour on 33%. YouGov’s previous poll gives the same figures for each of the two main parties. Polls before have generally placed the two parties neck and neck or given Labour one or two point leads.

Furthermore, out of five polls on Monday, the Conservatives were ahead in three.

Whilst the percentage of people saying they would vote for the Conservatives and Labour are within the margin of error of each other in YouGov's latest poll, could these latest polls suggest that, with 99 days until the general election, David Cameron’s party are pulling ahead?

Often in between elections, the governing party suffer behind the opposition in the polls, but often the government have pulled ahead in the months before the election. It’s possible that this could be happening here, however, the trend over the coming weeks and months will need to be observed.

On the other hand, 2015 is an incredibly different election to any other. The rise of UKIP, the SNP and the Greens is one major factor that could change everything in May. Additionally, where will the Lib Dem vote go, as it is expected to see a collapse in 99 days time?

So much is up in the air right now.

Nonetheless, if the wind starts blowing in Cameron’s favour then he could find himself at the helm of another government. But what form will that government be? The chances of the Conservatives getting a majority is slim, particularly with the party failing to get one with 36% of the vote in 2010. The Conservatives would likely have to increase their vote share in order get a majority, something that will prove extremely difficult with UKIP chipping away at their vote.

On the other hand, these marginal leads by the party could be nothing and the country could wake up a Labour led government on May 8th, but whatever form that will come in is any ones guess.

Overall, the next few months will be crucial in the general election. Manifestos will soon be out and contacting voters will be key to any victory. But with the chances of a hung parliament likely, whoever has the highest number of seats could have a tricky set of negotiations on their hands.

The full results of the latest YouGov poll can be found here. The full results of the previous can be found here.

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