Labour and Tories neck and neck: election too close to call

YouGov’s latest poll, for the Sunday Times, illustrates just how tight the general election will be.

It’s 101 days until the general election and it is one of the most unpredictable one in decades.

The latest poll puts Labour and the Conservatives tied on 32% of the vote each. The poll puts UKIP in third place on 15%, then the Lib Dems and the Greens neck and neck on 7% of the vote each.

YouGov’s poll suggests that there is continuing uncertainty as to who will be in Number Ten after the election. Either David Cameron will return to that black door, or Ed Miliband will take the keys to it for the first time.

Additionally, if the two main parties achieved such results in May, then the Conservatives will have fallen by four points since 2010, and Labour will only have marginally improved on their 29% five years ago. The collective 64% between the two main parties would be the lowest ever, meaning that over a third of voters will have rejected the two party system.

As for UKIP, their 15% seems consistent with previous polls, but whether or not the party can turn their share of the vote into actual seats is yet to be seen. Nonetheless, third place for UKIP in terms of their share of the vote will illustrate just how much the British party system is changing.

The YouGov poll also shows just how tight the race for fourth place could be. Five years ago, when the Lib Dems got 23% of the vote, no one would have thought it possible that they would be struggling to get into fourth place alongside the Greens. However, even if the Greens match the Lib Dems in terms of shares of the vote the latter is going to get far more seats under the FPTP electoral system.

Overall, this poll really shows just how close this election is. There is mass uncertainty over whether Labour or the Conservatives will win the highest number of seats. It also shows how UKIP are on the up, and how the Lib Dems are struggling to hold onto fourth place.

May will be one of the most closely watched elections in years.

The full results of the poll can be found here. 1578 GB adults were interviewed between the 22nd and 23rd of January.


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