Jim Murphy has failed to stop the SNP surge, suggests new poll

Jim Murphy

A new STV/Ipsos-Mori poll suggests that the SNP could get 52% of the vote in Scotland in May, compared to Labour’s 24%.

The SNP have gained increasing momentum since the referendum in September, in which Scots voted 55%-45% against independence.

The poll, released on Wednesday, suggests that the SNP are still seeing strong support and will make gains in the general election. It also shows that the new Scottish Labour leader, Jim Murphy, is making little headway since he was elected over a month ago.

The poll puts the Conservatives in third place with 12% and the Lib Dems and the Greens neck and neck on 4% each. It also suggests that 1% will vote UKIP and 2% will vote for others.

According to the SNP, Stewart Hosie MP, the party’s deputy leader said:

“This is another very encouraging poll - with a 28-point SNP lead for May's Westminster election, this shows remarkable levels of support for the only party that will always put the interests of the people of Scotland front and centre.”

Whilst the SNP took to the news positively, the independent progressive Labour blog, Labour List, said:

“The results of this poll are not good. Not good at all. But how do they compare to earlier polls? Earlier in the week we reported on Survation’s polling, which showed that although Labour were still 20 points behind the SNP, Labour had gained 2 points.”

If the results of the poll are repeated in May then the SNP will make sweeping gains and Scottish Labour will likely lose their majority north of the border. Additionally, Jim Murphy's reputation will be tarnished, however, Labour still have a year until the Holyrood elections.

Nonetheless, the poll comes as a blow to Scottish Labour. Additionally, Scotland is traditionally a Labour stronghold. If the SNP make significant gains then Ed Miliband’s chances of getting into Number Ten could be significantly reduced.

The rise of the SNP in Scotland is just one of the many new factors that will determine the outcome in May. Politics is bracing itself for a messy, colourful result.

The full results of the poll can be found here. 1,001 respondents were questioned between the 12th and 19th of January by Ipsos-Mori. The poll was for STV.


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