SNP support remaining strong in Scotland

Nicola Sturgeon

Recent polling suggests that Labour are continuing to fall behind Nicola Sturgeon’s party, with less than four months to go until the general election.

The SNP have calculated, using five subsamples of YouGov’s daily polls this last week, that SNP support could stand at 44%. Additionally, the data also puts Jim Murphy’s Scottish Labour on 27%.

Such a result, if reproduced in the general elections could have major consequences for the shape of the next UK government. Additionally, they continue to indicate a massive change in the post referendum landscape.

The poll also suggests that support for the Conservatives could be 15% and just 4% for the Liberal Democrats.

Many might have suggested that the jump in support the party experienced after their referendum loss would have faded away by now, but it’s clear that the SNP are continuing to make progress.

Since Jim Murphy has taken over as leader of Scottish Labour it appears that there has been little impact in the polls. The SNP are clearly enjoying a considerable lead over Murphy’s party.

Putting the results from the average of the YouGov polls into the Scotland votes election calculator, the votes could result in a tremendous 47 seats for the SNP, compared to just 10 for Labour. The calculator also puts the Lib Dems and the Conservatives on one seat each. Labour currently have 41 seats, the SNP have 6, whilst the Lib Dems have 11 and the Tories have just one.

Of course such calculations are crude as they measure uniform swings. It can be incredibly difficult to work out which seats will vote which way due to Westminster’s first past the post system, but such calculators give an indication that the SNP could make considerable gains.

Overall, it appears that Scotland will be somewhere to watch in May. Even if the SNP do not do as well as polls are indicating, it is more than likely that they will still make significant gains.  There are so many new factors at play in May and the surge of the SNP could be one of the most dramatic.

The full data used from the YouGov polls can be found here.


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