Sixteen weeks to go - Labour lead by two points in new poll

YouGov’s latest poll, for the Sun, just sixteen weeks to the day away from the general election, suggests that Labour have a slight edge.

The poll gives Ed Miliband’s party 34%, two points ahead of David Cameron’s Conservatives on 32%. On third place, the poll puts UKIP on 15%, then the Greens on 7%, then the Liberal Democrats on 6%.

The previous two YouGov polls gave Labour a 1% lead, and the one before had the two main parties tied.

Including margins of errors the polls continue to show just how tight the race to Number 10 is. Lord Ashcroft’s poll on Monday gave the Conservatives a six point lead over Labour, but the margins of error suggest that the gap could be much narrower.

As for UKIP, polls, whilst not predictions, have continued to suggest that Nigel Farage's party will come third in terms of their share of the vote.

But even more interesting is the battle for fourth place between the Greens and the Liberal Democrats: the polls are continuing to show just small differences between the Greens; and the Liberal Democrats' shares of the vote.

Indeed, YouGov’s polls have been particularly favourable to the Green party in recent months. Lord Ashcroft’s poll on Monday puts the two parties neck and neck for fourth place on 8% each.

Whether the Greens can achieve such a high vote share will be seen in sixteen weeks time. This poll was released just before news that the total membership of all Green parties across the UK has overtaken UKIP’s memberships. The Greens reportedly now have 43,829 members UK wide.

As for Scotland, a key battleground if Labour want to win the election, the poll suggests that the SNP are still riding high. 44% intend to vote SNP, well ahead of the 28% who intend to vote for Labour, the 12% for the Conservatives, and the 4% for the Lib Dems. However, it is important to note that this is less accurate as the sample size for Scotland was just 160 people (weighted). But this result follows a trend that the SNP are continuing to gain ground following the referendum last year.

Overall, this will be one of the most unpredictable elections ever. A hung parliament looks likely due to the surge in support of smaller parties. But what sort of parliament will the general election result in? Which party will have a plurality of seats and votes? It's all to play for in May 2015.

The full results of YouGov's poll can be found here. A total of 1834 GB adults were questioned between the 13th and 14th January.


Conservatives take big lead in new Ashcroft poll

Battle for fourth place: Greens and Lib Dems neck and neck