With just under four months until voters go to the polls, is there anything we can be certain of when predicting outcomes?
The truth is there’s very little that one can be certain of - 2015’s election is even harder to predict than 2010’s - but here's some decent guesses.
In 2010 there was a high chance of a hung parliament. It was fairly likely that a coalition would be formed - either a Labour - Lib Dem agreement, or a Conservative - Lib Dem one. The country got the latter, but this time it’s possible - with the falling Liberal Democrat share of the vote - that more than two parties might be needed to form a coalition. On the other hand, a minority administration might be a better option, but that could cause some major problems for the governing party.
Either David Cameron or Ed Miliband will lead the government in 2015, that much is certain, but how long they can hold onto power after that is anyone’s guess. And which parties will help them into power?
One certainty is that following the election and the formation of the government, either David Cameron or Ed Miliband will resign. A Conservative loss will immediately prompt David Cameron’s resignation as leader as he will have failed to retain Number 10. Or if the Conservatives keep the keys to Downing Street, then Ed Miliband will resign, having failed to take back the office for Labour.
As for Nick Clegg, who knows? A coalition involving the Liberal Democrats will likely see him keep his role, but if the party loses a significant number of seats then his credibility will be questioned. Additionally, if the Lib Dems enter into coalition with Labour, then a more left-leaning leader might be preferred by the party - say Vince Cable or Tim Farron.
As for Nigel Farage, he has stated that he would resign if UKIP fails to win seats in 2015. But if they succeed then Farage will probably continue to lead the party - and perhaps from within Westminster.
Shares of the vote
If polls are anything to go by, then UKIP’s vote share will increase, as will the vote shares for the Green parties and the SNP. Whether these can translate into seats is of course harder to predict.
As for Labour and the Conservatives it’s all up in the air. Labour have led in recent polls, but their gap has narrowed since a couple of years ago. It’s anyone’s guess who will get a higher share, but I would not be surprised if neither of the main two parties get 35% or more of the vote each, particularly with the rise of smaller parties.
SEE ALSO: Politicians to watch in 2015
What else - if anything - is certain about the general election?