The poll, for the Observer, puts Labour on 33%, marginally ahead of the Conservatives on 32%. UKIP are placed on 17%, whilst the Lib Dems are fourth on 8%. The poll also puts the Green party on 4%, as well as the SNP.
Fieldwork for the poll was conducted between the 30th and 2nd of January.
The poll suggests that the gap is narrowing, with Labour falling three points from the last Opinium poll, and the Conservatives rising three. That means that the previous poll gave Labour a seven point lead and was released in a week when Labour did well in other polls.
Speaking of the new poll by Opinium, Labour List said:
“That’s quite a sharp fall for Labour from a lead of 7 points two weeks ago to a one point lead, but the seven point lead before Christmas did look like a bit of an outlier.”
The poll is one of the first of 2015 and will still be taken as good news by the Labour party - but only to an extent due to the tightening of the gap. The poll offers a snapshot of the political mood in the country at the moment, and not a prediction, but once again suggests that 2015 is going to be a tight race.
Opinium’s poll once again suggests that UKIP are well ahead of the Liberal Democrats, which will be good for Nigel Farage’s party. 2015 for UKIP could be a pivotal year for the party as they could gain a handful of MPs.
Speaking to the Independent, YouGov pollster, Joe Twyman, suggested that UKIP could get “half a dozen” seats.
Rick Nye of Populous made an interesting suggestion, saying:
“I can see a hung parliament, where Labour is the largest party in terms of seats – though not necessarily in terms of votes”.
If the general election has a close Labour - Conservative result then such an outcome could be possible.
The poll will be the first of many in 2015, a year which could have a massive impact in the future of British politics.