Scotland’s only elected representative of UKIP is to stand in the same constituency as Alex Salmond in the upcoming 2015 election.
David Coburn became one of Scotland’s six MEPs in the European elections earlier this year. The SNP had hoped for a third seat in Scotland, whilst the Scottish Greens hoped for their first, but it was UKIP who got the last seat to be allocated for Scotland.
Both Coburn and Alex Salmond are hoping to take the constituency of Gordon from the Liberal Democrats, where Sir Malcom Bruce is stepping down. The Lib Dem PPC for the constituency is Christine Jardine. She aims to hold onto the seat.
A UKIP win in the constituency will almost certainly not happen, nonetheless David Coburn claims that he could beat the former First Minister.
Speaking to Scotland on Sunday, UKIP’s only Scottish MEP said:
“Mr Salmond has made a lot of interesting remarks about the English and he’s alienated our closest trading partner.
“He has tried to rat on the referendum result and achieve independence by the back door. It’s possible that he would prop up a rotten Labour government or even a rotten Conservative government.”
In 2010, the Liberal Democrats won with 36.0% of the vote. The SNP came second with 22.2%. UKIP were nowhere to be seen.
William Hill gives the following odds for the constituency, as of 29th December:
Liberal Democrats: 9/2
And lastly UKIP have odds of 100/1.
Compared to how they do in the rest of the country, UKIP have had very little success in Scotland, the fact that they have just one MEP being one example of this. YouGov’s latest poll has them on 5% in Scotland, whilst in the Midlands/Wales they are on 24%, 20% in the rest of the south, 10% in London, and 10% in the north.
The SNP have a good chance, but the Liberal Democrats could still hold the seat. UKIP have very little hope in winning, but their candidate seems optimistic nonetheless.
Who will win the Gordon constituency?