December’s poll figures for the top four are as follows:
Theresa May: 27%
Boris Johnson: 20%
Sajid Javid: 12%
George Osborne: 11%
The poll had 850 party members responding. Respondents' answers were tested against a YouGov control panel.
The Home Secretary, Theresa May, is seven points ahead of Boris Johnson, but is down two points from last month’s poll. On the other hand, Johnson is up two points from his performance last month.
Javid is up three points, whilst the Chancellor of the Exchequer is down three points.
The poll is of course hypothetical right now, as David Cameron remains firmly in charge of his party, but if the Conservatives fail to get the highest number of seats in 2015’s general election then a leadership election will more than likely take place.
However, despite May’s lead in the future leadership poll, she has fallen in Conservative Home’s Cabinet League Table. Her net satisfaction is +57.8%, compared to Ian Duncan Smith who leads with +78.3%.
Whilst Boris Johnson is not a member of the cabinet, respondents to this survey were asked to rate him as well. His net satisfaction stands at +79.8%. Johnson could be May’s main rival in the event of a future leadership election so this rating could be interpreted as bad news for May. But as the Mayor of London is not a member of the cabinet his satisfaction is arguably open to interpretation.
Theresa May is a likely future leader, however, another figure could be in with a chance in a future leadership election: Sajid Javid. He came third in the hypothetical leadership poll. However, according to readers of Conservative Home he is the number one Conservative to watch in 2015.
Speaking of the results, Conservative Home said:
“If the Conservatives form a Government, majority or otherwise, Sajid Javid will presumably be promoted within the Cabinet. If they don’t, he is a possible leadership contender, and will certainly be a senior member of the Shadow Cabinet.”
Theresa May’s path to leadership is far from certain - she will have obstacles, mainly in the shape of some fellow MPs - but the initial poll suggests she has a good chance. For Theresa May, the future could be bright.
In the event of the Conservatives losing the election, who should next lead the party?