Could 2015 be the year of Boris ?

Boris Johnson chairs meeting

Boris Johnson hopes to return to Parliament once more. 2015 could be his year.

No one is quite sure how the 2015 general election will play out. Polls suggest that the top position could either be taken by Labour or the Conservatives. UKIP are likely to come third in terms of their share of the vote, but could fall short of getting a decent number of seats. The Liberal Democrats are to lose seats, but no one's sure how many, and the SNP are likely to make gains in Scotland.

But one thing is for sure, either Ed Miliband or David Cameron will become Prime Minister. If the latter fails to win and the former leads his party to victory and takes Number Ten then Boris Johnson’s moment could arrive, that is if Johnson wins in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

A Conservative loss would trigger a leadership election, which would likely see Boris Johnson, Theresa May and perhaps George Osbourne and others enter the fray.

A recent YouGov poll suggests that Boris - the current mayor of London - is on track to become the next Tory leader. Amongst Conservative voters he is on 47%, compared to Theresa May’s 37%. A win for Johnson will see him take further steps towards becoming Prime Minister.

If Johnson becomes leader then there are two paths he could walk. One will see him waiting until 2020 for the next election to become Prime Minister; the other could see him take his prize earlier.

2015 is likely to return a hung parliament, one more fractured, colourful and confusing than the one in 2010. The main reason for this is that a collapse in the Liberal Democrat vote share and seats could make it impossible for a coalition to be formed with just two parties. Three might be needed, or some sort of confidence and supply minority government could be build. If Labour lead this future coalition then it is likely to suffer from more divisiveness and infighting than our current coalition.

Such divisiveness could lead to a snap election, giving Johnson, or another Tory leader, the opportunity to become Prime Minister.

A lot of things are needed for this situation to arise, but Johnson has the determination to lead and 2015 is likely to produce a very different parliament to one we have seen before. However, a poll by Conservative Home put Theresa May ahead of Boris Johnson in a hypothetical leadership race so he will face challenges on the road to leadership.

In a couple of years, Boris Johnson could be Prime Minister.

2015 could just be his year.

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