Labour on course for victory, according to this week’s polls

Ed Miliband Smile

Polls throughout the week have shown that the Labour party is making steps forwards.

A YouGov poll, for the Sun on Friday, gave Labour a five point lead over the Conservatives. Such a lead in a YouGov poll has not been seen in a while, with recent YouGov polls giving Labour one or two point leads, or ties with the Conservatives, or a small Conservative lead. However, one poll in November gave them a four point lead.

The results of the Friday poll are as follows:

Labour - 35%

Conservatives - 30%

UKIP - 16%

Liberal Democrats - 6%

Greens - 8%

If the results were repeated in the 2015 general election then Labour would be back up the level of support it received in 2005, whilst the Conservatives’ share would fall six points from 2010. Such a lead could give Ed Miliband’s party a majority, however, a lot would depend on how well the SNP do in Scotland and how well UKIP and others perform.

However, Sunday’s YouGov poll, for the Sunday Times, puts the party just two points ahead (34%-32%). A two point lead is not as good for the party but Friday’s five point lead will indicate to them that they are moving in the right direction.

Additionally, the latest Opinium/Observer poll gave Labour a seven point lead over the Conservatives (36%-29%). The Conservatives’ share remains unchanged, whilst Labour are up two point.

A TMS-BMRB poll on the 19th also gave Labour a seven point lead (35%-28%), suggesting that things are going well for Ed Miliband’s party, whilst a Populus poll gave them a one point lead (35%-34%).

Polling-wise, the week has been good for Ed Miliband’s party. If the trends repeat themselves next May then the country could wake up with Prime Minister Miliband leading the nation.

As the parties enter the ‘long campaign’ period, the final months of the general election are now upon us. If Labour want to win they must sustain this momentum and repeat their messages, but the Conservatives could pull ahead.

However, it is unlikely neither party will win a majority next May, but either Labour or the Conservatives will have to lead some sort of administration, whether that be a coaltion or a minority government. But this week is positive news for Labour if it wants to lead the next government.

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