SNP soaring ahead - new poll suggests Scots would now vote ‘yes’

Nicola Sturgeon

The independence referendum took place almost three months ago, but the SNP have continued to do well. This is not a blip.

The YouGov poll, done for Scottish Sun, shows that 52% of Scots would vote ‘yes’, whilst 48% would vote ‘no’. The poll shows that people have changed their mind since the referendum, as the poll first asked how respondents voted in the referendum.

The poll also puts the SNP up six points, on 47% for those intending to vote in the Westminster election next year. Such a result would be an incredible feat for the nationalists as it would likely see their seat total rocket, weakening Labour’s hold on Scotland. The poll is bad news for the newly elected Labour leader Jim Murphy who aims to become First Minister in 2016.

As for Labour, the poll puts them on 27% in the Westminster voting intentions, a result, which would weaken the chances of Ed Miliband getting an overall majority next May.

The polls puts the Conservatives third with 16% (up from 15% in October). It also puts the Lib Dems, the Greens and UKIP on three points each for the UK-wide election.

According to Scotland Votes’ seat calculator, the SNP would jump from six seats to fifty-two seats in Scotland, potentially giving them the balance of power in the event of a hung parliament next May. Labour would retain six seats, down from their current 41, whilst the Lib Dems would go from 11 seats to just one. The Conservatives meanwhile would lose their only seat north of the border.

The calculator measures uniform swings in a first-past-the-post system, meaning that these results are likely to be skewed as local factors will not be taken into account for example and the swing to the SNP will not be the same across the nation. But it gives an indicator as to what Scotland will look like in 2015. And for the new Scottish Labour leader, it does not look good.

Additionally, the SNP are continuing to soar in terms of membership numbers. It is believed that they now have around 92,000 members. The other main pro-independence party, the Scottish Greens, are believed to have jumped to around 8,000.

The SNP are on the up, but one has to wonder, when - if ever - will the bubble burst?

The full YouGov poll conducted between the 9th and 11th of December can be found here.

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