Conservatives and Labour tied; Greens ahead of Lib Dems once more

Sunday’s YouGov poll, for the Sunday Times, puts the two main parties on 32% each and the Greens in fourth place for the third poll in a row.

Respondents (1838 GB adults) were interviewed between the 4th and 5th of December.

Labour and the Conservatives each got 32%, which is an indicator of how just how tight next year’s race to Number Ten will be. 32% for Labour would be an improvement on the 29% the party got in 2010, but only marginally. Whilst 32% for the Conservatives would be a fall from the 36% they got last time and would remove any chance of the party getting a majority.

If these figures are repeated next May then neither of the main parties are likely to get a majority, and if one of them does, more likely Labour due to the party’s advantage in constituency boundaries, then getting a majority on less than a third of the vote (let alone higher) would be an incredible affront to democracy.

This poll is another sign that the public are steadily losing interest in the main two parties, meaning that a coalition - or a minority government - is a more likely outcome.

The second interesting result of the YouGov poll is the battle for fourth place. The poll puts the Greens on 7%, one point ahead of the Liberal Democrats on 6%. Friday’s YouGov poll also put the Greens ahead (8%-7%), whilst Thursday’s gave them 7% to the Liberal Democrats’ 6%. Analysis of the Thursday poll can be found below:

Greens could beat the Liberal Democrats next May, says new poll.

The Greens are gaining support, especially amongst young people, with 18% of 18-24 year olds intending to vote for the party in YouGov’s latest poll. Young people are the party’s biggest hope.

Meanwhile UKIP sit on 17%, well ahead of the Greens and the Liberal Democrats, but still a fair bit behind the two main parties.

The poll continues to show a few key recent trends in British politics:

1) Support for Labour and the Conservatives is falling overall. Neither will win a majority in 2015.

2) The Greens are battling it out with the Liberal Democrats for fourth place.

3) UKIP are third and have been third in the polls for a while. For now, they are Britain’s third party.

Everything is changing in British politics, and next May could see even more.

The full results of YouGov’s Sunday poll can be found here.