Farage could miss out on seat next May, says new poll

Nigel Farage sitting as an MEP

UKIP have been riding high in recent polls, but Lord Ashcroft’s latest poll reveals that the party leader could miss out on a seat in the Commons.

Nigel Farage will be standing in Thanet South. The poll questioned 1,000 respondents in the area.

When respondents were asked: ‘If there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Would it be Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, UKIP, or another party?’, an impressive 29% said UKIP, but 33% said Conservative, putting Nigel Farage’s main opponent out in front.

When respondents were then asked: ‘And thinking specifically about your own parliamentary constituency at the next general election and the candidates who are likely to stand for election to Westminster there, which party's candidate do you think you will vote for in your own constituency?’, the Conservative total increased one point to 34%, whilst the UKIP vote remained on 29%.

This is just one poll, and only gives an indicator of how people will vote next May, but it’s likely that Nigel Farage’s journey to parliament might not be as easy as he might have thought. However, the poll also shows that UKIP is on a close second, and with five months to go until the election Mr. Farage still has a good chance.

The poll also revealed some other interesting results. They polled Doncaster North, Ed Miliband’s constituency, and found that the leader of the opposition will probably keep his seat (37% for standard voting intention, and 40% for constituency voting intention), but UKIP could come a fairly good second, with the party polling just six points behind with 31% for the standard voting intention, and 28% for constituency voting intention. If UKIP come second in lots of places across the country, whilst gaining a handful of seats next May, then the party will likely be able to build on success in 2020.

Lord Ashcroft also polled the Liberal Democrat leaders’ seat, Sheffield Hallam. For standard voting intention, the party comes second, with 27% compared to Labour’s 28%. However, for constituency voting intentions, the junior coalition partner’s share of the vote increases to 31%, three points ahead of Labour on 28%.

Next year’s election will be one of the most unpredictable in years. But to make matters more complicated, this poll reveals that some of the leaders of the main parties could be getting involved in major battles in their own constituencies. The poll reveals, that despite a strong showing from UKIP in recent polls, the party’s leader could miss out on a seat. Additionally, Nick Clegg could lose his seat to Labour, and as for the Labour leader himself, he is the most secure, but a close second from UKIP could undermine his authority - and even his chances in 2020.

2015 could be a whole lot more complicated.

Respondents were interviewed between the 18th and 24th of November. The full results of the Ashcroft polls can be found here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Doncaster-N-Sheffield-H-Thanet-S-poll-summary-Nov-14.pdf