UKIP won the battle but the Conservatives could win the war

David Cameron Conference

UKIP now has two MPs, but despite losing in Rochester and Strood, the Conservatives are making inroads elsewhere.

Friday’s YouGov poll gave David Cameron’s party a one point lead over Labour (34%-33%). One percentage point may not sound like much, and does lie within the margin of error, but it is a sign that the wind could be blowing in David Cameron’s direction.

Thursday’s YouGov poll also gave the Conservatives a one point lead (34%-33% once more). Again, that does not sound like much, but considering Ed Miliband’s Labour party have led in the polls almost non-stop the last few year’s, two leads in a row could be a sign of change in British politics.

Labour have led in the polls for so long, as they are the official opposition. The governing parties rarely perform well in polls in between elections, and in local and European elections in between.

Going back to 2013, on the 20th of January, Labour led in a YouGov poll by nine points (42%-33%). Even around a year ago, (24th November last year), Labour had a seven point lead over the Conservatives (40%-33%) in a YouGov poll. Other polls around the same time still suggested a strong Labour lead. Those were the days when the Liberal Democrats and UKIP were fighting over third place in the polls. Now that position is firmly dominated by UKIP.

YouGov’s Friday poll gave Nigel Farage’s party 15% compared to Nick Clegg’s on 7%.

The political landscape has shifted dramatically over the last year. But one long term aspect that has changed is Labour losing their steady lead in opinion polls. The Conservatives’ leads in the latest YouGov polls would have been near impossible over a year ago.

If momentum continues to run in David Cameron’s favour then he could end up leading a government once more from May next year.

UKIP may have won the most recent political battle, but the signs are there that the Tories could beat Labour to win one of the most uncertain electoral wars in years.

The full results of Friday’s YouGov poll can be found here. Fieldwork was carried out between the 19th and 20th of November. 1995 GB adults were questioned.