Ed Miliband failing to make progress

Ed Miliband

It’s just over six months until the election and YouGov’s latest poll demonstrates some of the main problems the Labour party is facing.

Friday’s poll, for the Sun, was conducted between the 15th and 16th of August and is the most recent poll by the company.

When asked the question: ‘Which of these would make the best Prime Minister?’, the Labour leader faired much worse than his Conservative counterpart.

A total of 38% thought David Cameron would make the best Prime Minister, exactly double the 19% that thought likewise for Ed Miliband. Additionally, 5% said Nick Clegg an 39% said they 'don't know'.

To make things worse for the potential future Prime Minister, out of all the different subdivisions of respondents, each group prefered David Cameron to Ed Miliband apart from in those intending to vote Labour and those who voted Labour at the last general election.

41% of male voters thought David Cameron would make the best Prime Minister, compared with 20% who prefered Ed Miliband. Female voters also prefered David Cameron (35%-17%).

Even out of respondents from the north, more people chose the current Prime Minister to the Leader of The Opposition (30%-25%).

As previously stated the Labour leader only came out best in the groups of ‘Westminster VI’ and ‘2010 Vote’ - but only for those picking Labour.

Out of those intending to vote, Labour 59% thought Ed Miliband would be the best Prime Minister, whilst 4% picked David Cameron. As for those intending to vote Conservative, 95% picked David Cameron compared with 0% chosing the Labour leader.

What this all shows is that Ed Miliband is failing to make inroads as a likeable leader in the eyes of groups across the country. As someone who could potentially become Prime Minister it is surprising that he his failing to beat David Cameron in almost all subdivisions of society. The fact that more people in the north of England and in Scotland, think that David Cameron would be a better leader than Ed Miliband is bad news for the Labour leader.

Particularly in Scotland where the Conservatives got 1 in 6 of the the votes in 2010, it is incredibly bad news for Ed Miliband that 31% of Scots would chose David Cameron, compared with the 19% that picked the Labour leader.

Whilst many in the Labour party are taking comfort in the fact that, whilst their leader is performing badly across the board, the party is leading in the polls. However, the polls are narrowing. Two weeks ago the Conservatives came first in a national poll for the first time since May 2012.

Additionally, in the most recent YouGov poll (where these results are taken from) Labour only led by one point (32%-31%). The previous YouGov poll also only gave Labour a two point lead.

The polls are narrowing and whilst Labour do not appear to be doing exceptionally well, neither are the Conservatives, particularly with UKIP getting almost 20% of the vote in the most recent polls. A recent Survation poll even put the party on 25% of the vote last week.

Overall, it’s looking as if May 2015 will be a tight race. This general election will be more different than ever before and will be decided by UKIP voters, former Liberal Democrats and floating voters in the key marginals.

Whether Ed Miliband can make some inroads is yet to be seen.

The full results of the YouGov poll can be found here: http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/10/17/update-labour-lead-1/