UKIP on 19%, in record-breaking poll

Nigel Farage sitting as an MEP

Yesterday’s YouGov poll gave the party 18 points, but today the party is on 19% - the first time ever in a YouGov poll.

UKIP have been riding high since May this year when the party won the 2014 European elections. Since then they have continued to do well in by-elections and last week managed to secure their first MP: Douglas Carswell in the seat of Clacton.

Reaching 19% in a YouGov poll shows that the party are continuing to make progress.

UKIP’s biggest support, according to the poll and in terms of age groups, comes from the over sixties, with 26% of this group saying they will vote for the party. From the 40-59 group, 20% would vote UKIP, whereas for those under forty the figure stands at 11%.

As for geographical support, its weakest area is Scotland, with 8% intending to vote for the party. However, after winning its first MEP in the country earlier this year, the party could capitalise on its previous success. Its biggest support, however, comes from the ‘Rest of South’, where, according to the poll, 25% intend to vote for Nigel Farage’s party.

The poll also gave Labour a lead overall, with 33%. The Conservatives got 31%, the Liberal Democrats 7%. Meanwhile, 10% said they would vote for other parties.

According to the electoral calculator on ‘Electoral Calculus’ such a result, if repeated next May, would give UKIP a total of 0 seats in the House Of Commons. However, if UKIP seat targetting goes well then the party should expect to pick up a handful of seats.

Labour would get 337, making them the largest party and give them a majority.

As for the Conservatives, the poll suggests, David Cameron would no longer be Prime Minister, as the party would get 267 seats.

The Liberal Democrats would suffer badly, if the poll was repeated in May as the party would only hold onto 18 seats.

The rest would go to nationalists and other smaller parties, such as the Greens.

What this poll shows is that UKIP are continuing to make progress at the expense of the main three Westminster parties. Additionally, if Labour were to get a majority with just 33% of the vote then there would be uproar.

Of course the main problem for the party, come the general election, is the first-past-the-post system, which benefits the established main parties. However, after last week’s win in Clacton, and a close second in Heywood and Middleton, UKIP can say that a vote for UKIP can result in UKIP MPs.

UKIP are making headway and are likely to keep up this momentum into the next general election, but whether the party can turn percentage points into seats next May is yet to be seen.

The sample size for the YouGov poll, for the Sun, was '2133 GB adults'. The full results can be found here: http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/10/16/update-labour-lead-2/