UKIP on track for 2+ seats before 2015

Nigel Farage MEP speaking

Coming from the fringes of British politics, UKIP are now on track for at least two MPs before 2015, according to a new poll.

The poll, conducted by Survation for the Mail on Sunday, interviewed 1012 residents of Rochester and Strood, the constituency where, in a few weeks, Mark Reckless, who defected from the Tories last month, is to stand under the UKIP banner.

The poll gives UKIP a nine point lead in the area.

Nigel Farage's party lead with 40% of those polled, followed by the Conservatives on 31%, Labour on 25% and the Liberal Democrats on 2%.

If this 'snapshot' is repeated in the by-election then Mark Reckless will become a UKIP MP.

Such an outcome will follow the by-election, this Thursday, in Clacton-on-sea, where Douglas Carswell, another Tory defector, is standing for UKIP.

It is likely that Carswell will win on Thursday, as shown by polls giving UKIP a strong lead in the constituency.

A poll conducted by Lord Ashcroft gave UKIP a 32 point lead in Clacton. According to the poll, 56% intend to vote UKIP, 24% Conservative, 16% Labour and 2% the Liberal Democrats.

This follows a previous Survation poll, giving UKIP an impressive 64% of the vote, ahead of the Conservatives on 20%, Labour on 13% and the Liberal Democrats on just 2%.

If the polls are correct, UKIP will likely gain momentum, having elected its first ever MP, which could boost Reckless' campaign in Rochester and Strood. By the end of 2014, UKIP could have its first two representatives in Westminster.

If not more.

Speaking about the Rochester and Strood Survation poll, the company's Chief Executive, Damian Lyons Lowe, said on the firm's website that: 'When academics Rob Ford and Matt Goodwin recently ranked every seat in the country in terms of their favourability to a UKIP win based on demographics, this seat was ranked 271, just 15 places behind Newark where the Conservative party cruised to a comfortable by-election victory.'

With a ranking of 271 for Rochester and Strood, Mr. Lowe is right in saying the Conservatives should be worried. The fact that so many people are moving towards UKIP must be causing a great deal of concern to Conservatives MPs' well-beings.

Mr. Lowe then went onto say that: 'certain Conservative MPs may conclude that it is actually safer for their careers to cross the floor to UKIP than stand and fight Farage’s insurgency.' If this really is the case, if UKIP win two MPs in the coming weeks, then more defectors could follow.

The question is now whether UKIP will actually win these by-elections and whether or not they can sustain the momentum from them right into the 2015 election. However, one thing will be undeniably clear from a UKIP by-election win:

The Conservative message of 'vote UKIP, get Miliband' is unlikely to stick, in which case David Cameron's Conservatives will be feeling the pressure.