No 52% Yes 48%: Scottish referendum too close to call

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The latest Survation poll, for the Daily Mail, gives Better Together a four point lead, but puts Yes up from last week.

The poll was conducted between the 12th and 16th September from 1000 adults (16+).

‘Yes’ are up one point, whilst Better Together are down one showing the tightness of the race.

When 'don't knows' (8.3%) are included, those intending to vote 'yes' stand at 44.1% (up 1.7%). As for those favouring Scotland remaining in the union the 'no's stand at 47.7% (up 0.1%). With still almost 1 in 10 yet to decide where they stand and both sides not getting 50% it is clear that as we enter the final day before the referendum the result will be tight.

The poll also shows that a majority (58%) of Scots do not think Scottish MPs should be able to vote on issues only for the rest of the UK. Only 21% think otherwise.

Over half of those surveyed (52%) think David Cameron should remain Prime Minister if Scotland votes 'yes', compared with the 32% who think he should resign. However, it is important to remember that these figures are only from Scottish voters rather than the rest of the UK’s electorate.

As for Alex Salmond, the gap is tighter with 39% saying he should resign if Scotland votes 'no'. 46% who disagreed. A substantial 15% said they ‘don't know' which way they are voting. I recently argued, that despite the first minister saying he would not resign, it would come down to the gap between 'yes' and 'no' in the final poll, Mr. Salmond's determination to stay in power and opinion poll ratings of Salmond and the SNP following the vote.

So what does this poll mean?

Scotland has never had an independence referendum so it is possible that the results in these polls have higher margins of error than would be expected as there’s nothing to compare it too. However, all recent polls have shown a swing towards 'yes', demonstrating that there is a growing support for independence. However, the 'no' camp has remained in front in most polls, but the tightness of the polls suggests a close race.

With 97% of the electorate registered to vote, but 8% still undecided, these voters will be key in deciding the outcome. Additionally, the Survation poll continues to tell a growing narrative throughout the campaign, that is that Labour voters will be fundamental in determining the outcome of the vote. Just 60% of those who voted for Labour in 2011 plan to vote 'no' tomorrow. The Labour vote is a key battleground.

Meanwhile the latest Scotsman ICM poll gives the same 52%-48% figures - also showing a tight race.

Today will be vital for all sides as campaigners make one last push. With the Survation poll being the latest in a long line of tight surveys both sides have every chance of securing victory.

There can be only one winner.